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News vFinal DR 2/9/09 11:12 Page 7
INDUSTRYNEWS
Too much, too soon Capacity
commitments
iSuppli Corp. reduces its forecast for solar Total solar panel production in 2009 will
panel production due to overcapacity. grow by 14.3 percent to 7.5 Gigawatts
continue
“The solar industry in 2009 has been (GW), up from 6.5GW in 2008. Only 3.9
undermined by collapse in demand due GW worth of installations will take place A new analyst for the solar industry
to the decision by Spain, which this year. That means that almost one out reveals growth will continue due to
accounted for 50 % of installations in of every two panels produced in 2009 will commitments already signed before
2008, to change its feed-in-tariff policies,” not be installed but stored in inventory. the downturn. The release of the first
said Henning Wicht, senior director and edition of the Quarterly PV Cell
principal analyst for photovoltaics at Despite the global economic recession, Capacity Database & Trends Report
iSuppli. “This demand drop led to a most of the leading producers of solar makes DisplaySearch’s solar cell
massive build up of inventory throughout panels, such as Suntech, Sharp and JA capacity database and analysis
the supply chain, from the raw material Solar, will continue to grow with the available to clients around the world.
polysilicon, to Photovoltaic (PV) cells, to industry, although they have no intention According to the Q3’09 report, solar
complete solar systems. Despite this, of slowing production of cells and panels. cell manufacturing capacity is
solar panel makers have continued to As a result, Suntech will push Q-Cells expected to grow 56% in 2009 to 17
increase capacity and production, aside and become the No.-1 producer of GW. Ramped capacity, which was only
exacerbating the inventory buildup.” crystalline cells in 2009, iSuppli predicts. 2.3GW in 2005, is forecast to grow at a
compound annual growth rate of 49%
Sharp, Yingli and JA Solar also will to more than 42GW in 2013.
defend their Top-5 positions this year by
not reducing their solar-cell production “Despite PV module demand shrinking
increases. Q-Cells, SunPower and BP 17% in 2009, so much cell
Solar have seen their short- and mid-term manufacturing equipment was ordered
strategies falter after adjusting. Q-Cells, in and installed over the past year that
particular, slowed down cell and panel capacity is still expected to grow 56%
expansion at its plant in Malaysia. this year,” said Charles Annis,
7
Likewise, SunPower has cut back its DisplaySearch VP of Manufacturing
plans for expansion, while BP Solar has Research and author of the report.
www
closed its panel production operations in
.solar
Malaysia and Spain. Through 2006, Japan had the largest
solar cell production capacity in the
-pv-management.com
world. However, China has continued
Solar capacity to double next year
to invest heavily in production facilities,
about a third of the worldwide cell
capacity in 2009 and is forecast to be
With higher demand for clean energy by alternate energy production ventures and the main region for cell production well
the US and China, new solar power will take the total production capacity to into the future. Between January 2008
generation is expected to double next 10 Gigawatts by 2010 from an estimated and July 2009, approximately †ß
Issue IV 2009
year providing a firm indication of a 6 Gigawatts this year. 11.4GW of new solar cell capacity was
recovery from low capacity utilization installed in fabs around the world.
caused by the global financial crisis, said Asian solar companies, Suntech and Trina These previous investment
Thiemo Lang, Portfolio Manager of SAM Solar, will have an edge over their commitments are the reason that
Smart Energy Fund (230 Million Euros (or European and US counterparts in terms capacity is continuing to grow 56% in
$324 Million)), as reported by Bloomberg of lower production cost that make them 2009 despite falling demand.
on July 17, 2009. more popular across the world. According
to an industry report “Global Photovoltaic In 2005, 95% of solar cell capacity
According to Nomura Securities, new Market Forecast to 2013” by RNCOS, was for crystalline silicon solar cells
investments in alternate energy are demand for PV system installations has and 5% for thin film solar cells. In
expected to rise to $450 Billion by 2012 given impetus to the development of solar 2009, thin film will account for more
from $150 Billion in 2007 on account of cell manufacturing worldwide. than 20% of capacity. By 2013, thin
steps taken by the US and Europe to film technologies are forecast to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. China According to a Research Analyst at account for as much as 30% of solar
will also increase its solar energy RNCOS, “China is giving priority to cell capacity. For a-Si factories, in 2009
generation capacity from the current level renewable energy production as a part of the four largest turn-key equipment
of 1.8 Gigawatts to 10 Gigawatts by 2020, its incentive to boost economy, and the vendors are AMAT, Oerlikon ULVAC
said the Chinese Renewable Energy investments are likely to rise in future. The and EPV, representing 946MW of
Industries Association. Trina Solar, US also represents an important market ramped capacity or more than 50% of
Suntech Power Holdings and Canadian for commercial segment with increasing a-Si capacity on-line this year.
Solar have been leading the Asian production and capacity.”
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