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Comment vFinal DR 2/9/09 16:44 Page 3
EDITORSVIEW
Industry realities
T
he photovoltaic market is at a crossroads of change as market realities have caught
up with industry hype. Analysts are declaring the industry will continue to grow but
only on the strength of orders made before the fiscal downturn. This suggests a glut of
industrial output for the next 2 - 3 quarters and then a market adjustment, which will of course
be viewed as some sort of industry downturn rather than the correction required after too many
players joined the expected party.
Although the next year or two will see a number of adjustments, as supply and demand
balance the see saw of market dynamics, there will also be a rationale reduction in the number
of companies and we can expect intense consolidation and acquisition over the next two years. The industry will
have a better idea who is shaping up to be the big players in this growing industry.
The other major change to impact the global industry is all to do with subsidies. With Spain reducing the local
subsidies and the subsequent collapse of demand in the region, many countries are carefully monitoring Germany
and Japan to see how they choose to move forward on subsidies. There is also a close eye been kept on the USA
and China who have both annonuced large stimulus packages for the local sector.
The PV industry needs to sell itself better to the general public and ensure there is awareness of the enabling
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capacity of PV energy as well as the secondary and tertiary job creations that will ensue from public investment. The
PV industry should look at how the semiconductor industry has been unable to get governments and financial
www
institutions to understand the enabling capacity of that industry, especially in Europe. Allowing the industry to be
.solar
driven purely on market expectations will lead to a diminished capacity for the global PV industry.
-pv-management.com
David Ridsdale
Editor-in-Chief
Issue IV 2009
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