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Investment projects in Kemerovo Region
www.csr.ru/document/material_55.stm
SECTION SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA, RUSSIA
Centre of Strategic Research: on Immigration policy THE DAILY TELEGRAPH THURSDAY_NOVEMBER 15_2007 Society
Birth rate In Siberia, three generations of a Baptist family are a Opinion
beacon of hope in a devastating population decline
We need migrant
There is no
short-term fix
workers, but…
Grand dad
MAXIM KRANS Between 10 and 12 million streamlined and legalised.
immigrants work in Russia, The new immigration legis-
RIA NOVOSTI only three million of them lation, enforced on January
COMMENTATOR
legally. While foreign labour 15, 2007, was a major step in
is increasingly used to fill this direction. Now immi-
skill gaps in Russia’s grants no longer need to
expanding economy, to what stand in long queues for reg-
extent is this at the expense istration.
All you need is love…
of the indigenous population? Instead, they may send a let-
Russia’s demographic policy up to 2025 ter of notification to the
will, its developers hope, reverse the decrease in
MARINA GRITSYUK
agency within 10 days of en-
births in the country over the past decades. Cur- ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA tering the country.
and perhaps a little bit of land
rently there is a birth in Russia every 21 seconds,
MOSCOW
The new laws stipulate that
and a death every 15 seconds. Russia hourly loses all employers signing labour
about 100 people, or 800,000-900,000 a year. One legacy of the USSR is or civil contracts with for-
The UN estimates that by the middle of the century Russia’s large migrant work- eign workers must notify the
the population could be as low as 96 million. force. Today, as many as local division of the Federal
The programme aims to increase birth rate, lower 80pc of its migrant workers Immigration Service within
death rate, and encourage immigration. The plan come from former Soviet re- 10 days. They must also pro-
is to secure a noticeable drop-off in the rates of publics, mainly Ukraine, vide information about the
population decline in the next three to four years, to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and trade or profession, qualifi-
stabilise numbers at 140 million by 2015 (currently Kyrgyzstan. cations and length of service
it’s 141.9 million). The next objective will be to in- Of the outside “suppliers”, of foreign workers, their
crease figures to 145 million, and raise average only Turkey and China pro- passport data, as well as the
lifespan from 66 years to 70 years. vide comparable numbers. duration of the contracts
The document also discusses immigration. Low-skilled guest workers signed with them. The work
The rapid population decline could soon have are – as elsewhere in the permit is effective for 12
a negative effect on the economy. According to world – employed in trade, months and can be extend-
Russian Economic Development and Trade Min- housing and communal in- ed.
istry figures, in a few years’ time Russia will face a dustry, agriculture, public This year Russia introduced
severe shortage in its working-age population. services and service sector, a quota (six million) for la-
Dictated by this, the policy prioritises the task of and construction. But a no- bour immigrants from the
attracting immigrants “according to demograph- table recent trend has also former Soviet republics,
ic, social and economic needs”, with an eye to been the increase in the per- who do not need a visa to
their social adaptation and integration. centage of highly skilled mi- come to Russia.
Such a programme should have been adopted grants. The Federal Immigration
in Soviet times, as soon as the country showed a According to Vyacheslav Service believes that the la-
tendency towards population decline. Even in the Postavnin, deputy director bour quota and transition
1980s, population growth was mainly fueled by of the Federal Migration from permit applications to
Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Service, this is mainly due to notification letters will re-
Today’s depopulation trend is so critical that the the growing number of duce the number of illegal
country’s very existence is under threat. large-scale housing and oil immigrants.
Implementation of the new long-term demo- and gas projects in Russia However, experts say that if
graphic programme in the next few years and and the shortage of locally- all the immigrants in Russia
even decades will be the top priority national trained specialists. were working legally the
project in Russia. “Over the years of radical state budget would have re-
reform in Russia the country ceived an extra several bil-
has practically destroyed its lion roubles.
FROM PERSONAL ARCHIVES
system of vocational train- Employers may have to
The quote
ing,” he said, “and many make up these shortfalls
It is no easy task raising to imagine how he could ever been on the brink of a demo- ing large families of their employers are facing a situ- through fines of up to
13 children, building eight have felt lonely. graphic collapse. own. His eldest son, Vasily, is
‘We are on the verge of a
ation where they cannot find 800,000 roubles (approxi-
houses and bringing up “When we first met, I was Since 1992, its population has a father of 12, and his daugh-
102 grandchildren, afraid and I didn’t dare reveal been declining by as much as ter Nadya has just as many.
crisis… Our main priority today
skilled workers even for high mately $32,400) per illegal
wages. worker. Several such fines
but Alexei Shapoval from that I had 13 children and – as half-a-million annually, com- His son Alexei has 10 chil-
is to decrease the death rate
“They have to be invited from have already been issued.
Siberia has proved up to the was then – just under 100 parable to the collosal losses dren; Iosif, eight; and Maxim,
challenge. His life is an grandchildren,” Alexei re- that the Soviet Union sus- four… There is a garden and
and increase the birth rate,
abroad. At international Those who organise the
projects on Sakhalin, for ex- smuggling of illegal workers
exception rather than a rule, calls. “When I finally told her, tained during the Second a greenhouse in every house- as well as to improve our ample, Filipinos work as gas into Russia can be impris-
since the average Russian she spent the next couple of World War. hold, which, along with live-
migration policy.’
and electric welders.” oned for up to five years.
family has no more than two months thinking my proposal Dmitry Mendeleyev, the fa- stock, help provide for the In Postavnin’s view, there Experts say that current
children. over.” mous Russian chemist and young families. Vladimir Putin can be no precise figure for measures against illegal im-
“Of course, the prospect creator of the Periodic Table, “I kept saying to my children: the current demand for mi- migration to Russia are not
MARINA KLARISS
seemed frightening,” says at one time estimated that the Treat the land with love. grant workers in Russia sufficient. The country can
ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA Valentina, Alexei’s new wife. Russian Empire’s population Farming won’t make you today, but the fact that prac- only effectively deal with
KEMEROVO REGION
“The family is very large, so would reach 300 million by rich, but you’ll never die of
Numbers
tically all new arrivals find the problem, it is argued,
you can never be sure how the start of the 21st century. hunger,” the eldest Shapoval employment is revealing in through the coordination of
…We motor along the wind- you’ll get along. I have just However, unlike the United says. “We always kept cows. itself. economic policy, adminis-
ing streets of the Siberian vil- one son myself. So I was in for States, Russia never reached The kids would work as shep- 11.2 million more deaths than births in last 13 There is also the fact that the trative regulation, and law-
lage of Bungur, trying to find some shock when Alexei that mark, having lost some herds in the summertime years market still needs to be enforcement.
-
the head of an unusually large brought me to his place for the 70 million of its residents to during their time off school.
family. first time. He had all of his famine, war and political re- They were rewarded for their 753,000 babies born in the first six months of
“Which of the Shapovals are children get together to intro- pression in the first half of the work with hay. When they 2007, 5pc more than same period last year
you looking for?” the locals duce me to them. 20th century, on top of anoth- grew up, the older children
ask. “We’ve certainly got “Then I suggested that their er 140 million that would handed over the work to their 500bn roubles (approx £10bn) allocated for
quite a few of them.” father and I move in together younger siblings. Our family policy measures aimed at demography
“Go to the church. Today’s for a month or two to see if we thus spent 17 years looking
Sunday, so they’ll all be could live together. But the The Shapovals’ after the local herd.
there.” kids’ reaction was that if we
could not be in
“Many wonder just how such
We soon see dozens of chil- were really going to live to-
sharper contrast
a large family could be pro-
What the papers say
dren and adults, all dressed gether, we should get mar-
to local population
vided for, but let me tell you
up, gathering outside the local ried.” one thing: this isn’t the big-
church. The Shapovals’ story could trends gest challenge. It’s much
“In the past, people would not be in starker contrast to more important to ensure
criticize me for having so local population trends. In the that one’s children grow up
many children. As Baptists, Siberian region of Kemerovo, have been added in potential into honourable adults. This
Izvestia
our faith used to be frowned the place they call home, pop- births. takes a lot of effort. But, for Efforts to raise the birth rate will not increase the
upon,” explains Alexei, a ulation has declined by a stag- The question is then, what some reason, this task is no number of working age people in the foreseeable
heavyset, grey-haired but gering 200,000 in the past can be done to reverse the cur- longer given as much atten- economic future – that is in the next 15-20 years.
generously smiling man. decade. According to the Fed- rent unfavourable trends? tion as it deserves. In fact, measures to increase the birth rate could
“Now my kids have grown up eral State Statistics Service, Specialists say that for the “Modern-day parents tend to slow down GDP growth during this period.
and I’m not ashamed of the there are 17 deaths and just 11 country to be able to regain its care more about their fami-
way they are. The times have births for every 1,000 resi- population – for the radical lies’ material well-being
changed too and the attitude dents. And this is a trend that transformation that this en- rather than about their spir-
toward large families isn’t has persisted for some years tails – each household must itual development.”
like it was before.” now. on avaerage produce at least And it is certainly true that
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Alexei has, indeed, every rea- Analysts from the “Severo- three children. few Russians share Alexei’s Unfortunately, the public attitude towards immi-
son to be proud of his chil- Zapad” think tank have pre- According to eminent social commendable attitude. A sur- grants can be negative. At the same time, high-
dren. They are all outgoing, dicted that the region will lose anthropologist Alexei Sa- vey conducted last year by the ranking statesmen often take issue with the idea
hospitable and cheerful, and another 200,000 of its resi- dovoi, the clear implication Federal State Statistics Serv- of solving Russia’s population problems with the
they look very much like their dents in the next decade un- of this is that Russia should ice came to the conclusion help of migration.
dad. less something is done to im- now place increasing focus that it is low incomes and in-
Four years ago, at the age of prove the demographic situ- on human values and work adequate housing that are the
69, a widowed Alexei decided ation. And they warn that the toward raising the standard main factors preventing peo-
to remarry. Surprisingly consequences of inaction of living in the provinces, in- ple from starting a family or
enough, the children support- could be most severe. creasing wages and provid- giving birth to as many chil-
Vedomosti
ed the idea – an elderly person Kemerovo region’s demo- ing spacious, yet affordable dren as they would like. One Women born during the baby boom of the late
shouldn’t spend his or her last graphic crisis is itself repre- apartments for couples will- further factor is the move 1970s are now having their babies. When the
years all alone, they reasoned. sentative of the situation in ing to have several kids. away from marriage, which not so populous generation of the early 1990s
Although, looking at the Russia as a whole. Over the Incidentally, all of Alexei research tells us, is a direct reaches the reproductive age, the population
Shapoval family, it is difficult past 15 years, the nation has Shapoval’s children are rais- predictor of family size.
-
decline may accelerate sharply again. KONSTANTIN ZAVARZHIN_RG
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